Data Analysis: MTGO Modern Metagame Since MH2

After a few months' break, the Modern metagame analysis returns—with more data and more tools than ever! There's a lot of ground to cover, from the huge impact of Modern Horizons 2 on the format, via Forgotten Realms, all the way to the present day following the release of Midnight Hunt. Let's get down to business!

modern


Hello, my dear Cardmarket readers, I missed you! But I simply had to take a break from Magic for a few months. However, I am back now, and I bring presents: lots of charts, figures, tools, and of course a whole bunch of decklists—all the way from Modern Horizons 2 to today. Even if you've spent the last five months living under a rock in a cave on the far side of the moon, this article should bring you up to speed on all things Modern.

Part I – MH2 Redefining the Format

Last time we took a look at the metagame one month before the release of Modern Horizons 2. After Strixhaven had made its impact on the format, turbocharged Izzet Prowess, turning the format into "Duel Decks: Heliod versus Prowess" as some liked to call it.

Then the preview season truly started, followed by the most impactful release of the year. And then for a few weeks people tried to break the format, figure out the new of the set, create new archetypes … Thankfully, MH2 was a different beast from MH1.


mh2 doesn't do that

The Post-MH2 Modern Metagame

Is it true that Wizards could release a Modern Horizons set without breaking the format? To find out, let us start with the most represented archetypes in the published data of Preliminaries and Challenges (and Showcases, PTQs …) during that one month before the next release.


Proportion of archetypes, out of 3316 matches, between MH2 and AFR (threshold for Other: 67 matches)
Proportion of archetypes, out of 3316 matches, between MH2 and AFR (threshold for Other: 67 matches)

Izzet Prowess

We notice that people tried to keep on playing the previous best deck of the format, Izzet Prowess, to see whether the new brews would be able to keep up with it. The lists evolved a little though. As in prior articles, the example lists we showcase are the most recent ones with the highest number of points during that period.


Izzet Prowess by The_nayr, 4th at Modern Showcase Challenge on July 4
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2

We notice that two thirds of the lists adopted over . Considered the best red one-drop in the format, people started supporting it with four —and some number of sorcery spells, keeping for instance. It also supports delirium for in half of the lists, now one of the best removal spells in the format, even able to kill a or for a single red mana.

Now, you might be wondering how to get the proportion of decks that run a card?


website1
website2

Indeed, I recently published a website where you can get a lot of the data by yourself, with tons of filters and features, that is still under development:

https://aliquanto.shinyapps.io/mtg_modern_metagame_SA/

There's more to come about it in a future article.

Amulet Titan

The other archetypes at the top of the format also are known faces that received new toys. Amulet Titan—#nobadmatchup—acquires , which works both as a replacement for but also a way to get an uncounterable as early as turn three. Some people tried adding to stabilize the archetype as well. Combined with other archetypes running the land, it even made people think at the beginning that Saga might need a ban. We see later how the meta shifted to answer it.

You can also note that replaced , and several lists would now run a copy of to chain multiple .


Amulet Titan by kanister, 2nd at Modern Challenge on June 19
Main DeckSideboard
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1

This list is unusual as it runs 61 cards in the main and fourteen in the side. The reasoning was that can be considered a sideboard card that you would often side out but still wanted in the main deck as a tutorable option. Still, most Amulet decks remained on the classic 60+15 structure outside of that.

Deck guide: For a recent sideboard guide for the deck, you can take a look at PuntThenWhine's on Twitter.

Hammer Time

Another deck that tremendously appreciated the addition of is Hammer Time. Definitely not as old as Amulet, it was still an established archetype for months before MH2. It also got a new staple for its main deck in . In the sideboard, additional options such as and appeared. can be looped with , and became the very best removal spell in the format, for instance able to kill with any number of counters. A one-of and a graveyard hate slot filled with , , or similar options for a single generic mana or no mana at all () also became much more common, as you can search for them with Saga.


Hammer Time by CrusherBotBG, 1st at Modern Challenge on July 4
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 11
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2

Deck guide: For the best guide on the deck (on Patreon), make sure to ask Laplasjan. Note that the deck now splashes black mostly for in the sideboard.

Asmo Urza

Besides, again thanks to and other MH2 cards, a new archetype emerged: Asmo Urza. , , , and all provide a lot of support for an artifact deck. Saga also made a force to be reckoned with, once equipped to a Construct token. provides obscene amounts of value with , and enables some turn one Asmos.

You can see below an example of a Dimir list, but we could find Food shells in almost all combinations of colors.


Dimir Asmo Urza by sneakymisato, 1st at Modern Challenge on June 27
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  •  
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  •  
  • 4
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2

Other variants also appeared, without blue and for instance to search for . was interesting too, as it can create artifact tokens, and it is a legendary creature for , sometimes allowing the deck to cast on turn two. But since the whole Food archetype didn't stand the test of time after the initial hype, we should not spend too much time on it.

Izzet Murktide

However, itself was far from a fluke. Hey, a one-drop that ramps, creates card advantage, and deals damage—who could have guessed? Thankfully, MH2 also brought several ways to deal with it, preventing it from being too oppressive, as we see later. That does not stop it from fueling good decks though, especially with its partner in crime . Which one of the two is the best one-drop, you might ask. Well, as the best Modern brewer says, "Ragavan steals games. DRC wins games."


ragavan, nimble pilferer dragon's rage channeler

So, what does a Ragavan-plus-Darcy (also known as DRC) deck look like? Mostly a low curve midrange pile. Let us introduce Izzet Murktide. Since you play red and a delirium package for Channeler, you might as well add from MH2, same as people did with Izzet Prowess. However, the set did not just offer red cards. Blue cards are quite strong as well, such as the long awaited , or the blue flying : . Able to get bigger than what can deal with, and having a high mana value, it is quite hard to kill for many decks. And of course, it is very good at closing games quickly, especially in the late game when you cast a second copy that makes the first one so much bigger. It is funny that people initially tried to play in this deck, before simply realizing that the other one-drops are simply stronger. A similar phenomenon was seen in Legacy, but that is another story.

Having pretty much access to all the best anti-Amulet cards in the format allowed the deck to thrive and kick Amulet from its temporary throne as you can see in the next part. , , threats plus counterspells, or the new to deal with a on the stack through … The appearance of a lot of cards to hate on artifact/enchantments/lands, mostly to deal with decks but also hurting many other cards in the shell, such as itself or , certainly did not help.

Here, you may note that , , and not only shut down the effects of but destroy it as well, as explained by the Game Rules Manager. Indeed, a Saga without chapter abilities has its final chapter set at zero, so it will automatically die no matter the amount of counters on it.


Izzet Murktide by MZBlazer, 1st place at Modern Challenge on July 4
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1

Rakdos Midrange

How about keeping the red part of the deck, but replacing counterspells with discard spells? That's the idea behind this Rakdos Midrange deck, which somewhat existed before, just like people would try to make work in Modern, and similarly had a much stronger place when and the other companions were not yet rebalanced. Still, contrary to Izzet, the deck kept Lurrus as a companion. Is it worth it to drop ? Instead, the deck acquired and as alternative threats. How about casting a Voidwalker on turn two before a on turn three to steal and cast for free the of your Tron opponent in a perfect world?


Rakdos Midrange by Golgarburr, 9th at Modern Showcase Challenge on July 4
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 2
  •  
  • 4
  • 3
  • 3
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2

Stoneblade

Just like Izzet Prowess ran without , you can also find people doing the opposite. One such instance was Stoneblade, mainly having results in Jeskai form at the beginning. It's another deck that received a lot of upgrades from MH2. The Monkey of course, and as in Izzet Murktide, but also a new equipment to cheat in: , which is very hard to deal with for most decks and provides a fast clock. In white, as mentioned previously, is a very flexible answer to most threats in the format, whereas is a cheap threat.

This is also an archetype where we could witness the evoke Elementals making a splash early, such as and , which later became essential pieces of the format to deal with Hammer Time for example. You could see less popular variants with black instead of red as well, running instead of . Of course, black would not be black without strong removal, so was added, being especially useful to answer a resolved .


Jeskai Stoneblade by Thunderstriker7, 1st at Modern Challenge on June 13
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  •  
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 3
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  •  
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1

Deck guide: Do you want to play it? Kyle Boggemes has a guide to share.

Blue Living End

If you had a close look at the decklists so far, you might be wondering why one would run a narrow card such as (let us say, over ) or in decks full of one-drops. The answer is simple: cascade. Indeed, MH2 also brought us . And with it, two main archetypes (re)appeared: Blue and .


shardless agent living end

We often mentioned Living End in previous articles, without going in depth on it, as other graveyard combo decks such as Oops All Spells and Dredge had more results. That time is over. The structure of the archetype changed a bit with the new set while the game plan of cycling creatures before reanimating them through a cascade spell finding remained the same. It mostly does not have to splash white for anymore and in addition got more zero-mana interactive spells, which are nice enough to fill the graveyard with creatures to bring back: , , and . Grief allows you to pick off any answer your opponent could have before and after you cascade into Living End, Subtlety answers creatures without putting them into the graveyard or prevents a from interfering with cascade, and ensures that your opponent's graveyard remains empty. Some lists sometimes also run in the sideboard.

Among other new toys, is an out to graveyard hate such as as well as cascade hate like on zero. is another option that stops the evoking of Elementals and occasionally screws a Tron player.


Blue Living End by Glacier7, 3rd at Modern Showcase Challenge on July 3
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 4
  •  
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4

Deck guide: Do you want to master it? Ask Sodek (on Patreon), one of the best combo players in Modern.

Footfalls

While Living End is an all-in combo deck, the Modern format now includes another cascade deck. Outside of the cascade package it's filled with interactive cards, which makes it to be classified as a midrange deck. Besides, this time the card you cascade into does not require much setup to work: . As such, it is very reminiscent of the short-lived Turbo Valki deck that tried to cascade as fast as possible into and was full of control elements otherwise. Such is no longer possible since a ruling update, and joined the ban list in the meantime. However, the Rhinos deck received a strong tool to bridge the gap from turn two to the cascade on turn three: , whose mana value is 2+2=4. Perfect to kill a creature, or tap a land or a bigger creature.


WURG Footfalls by Darthkid, 2nd at Modern Showcase Challenge on July 4
Main DeckSideboard
  • 1
  •  
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 3
  • 3
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 3
  • 4

The white splash adds to combat the other cascade and blue decks, for decks, and brings the cascade count up to twelve via . Still, the deck also exists in Temur. Indeed, it provides a better mana base, often proved to be stronger than anyway, and you could even run , which is particularly hurtful for Amulet.


Temur Footfalls by teruteru8140, 15th at Modern Showcase Challenge on July 4
Main DeckSideboard
  • 1
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 3
  • 3
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 3
  • 3
  • 3
  • 4
  • 1

Deck guide: For more details about the history of the Footfalls archetype and a full primer, you can check out the teachings of Chris Giglio, a proficient Modern grinder on Magic Online.

Yawgmoth

Maybe you are more into creature combo decks? Or enjoy emblematic characters of Magic's storyline? I have just the right deck for you. Use to cast on turn two—and profit. Wait, that is not the main combo? Do not worry, this is your new bread-and-butter alternative win condition that also works as a spot removal even for planeswalkers, which you can find with and . In the sideboard, you also get to add as mill and graveyard hate, which may even reshuffle some silver bullets occasionally.


Yawgmoth by claudioh, 2nd at Modern Challenge on June 21
Main DeckSideboard
  • 2
  •  
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2

Deck guide: Are you looking for an intricate deck that your opponent might have trouble to play against correctly? You knocked at the right door, and a compilation of resources on the deck is available.

Humans

Last, people still ran Humans after MH2, toying with several new tribe members, such as , , , and . and also provide powerful options for the sideboard.


Five-Color Humans by ichi-roku, 2nd at Modern Challenge on June 6
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 3
  • 3
  • 3

Later, the deck evolved to Jeskai and picked up , but it did not post enough finishes yet to appear again on the graphs.

Deck guide: If you still want to make it work, you could start with this Reddit guide by Fluorspar.

Of course, many more archetypes appeared in the results, especially when people were trying to figure out what was going to be stronger than the rest. That is why the "Other" part of the pie almost represents 50% of the chart. You could also argue that Stoneblade should be split into smaller archetypes based on the color combination just like Footfalls was in the example. The point was merely to showcase the new archetypes that emerged while people were brewing up new contenders in this metagame (which already belongs to the past) and to mention the impactful cards of the set.

Besides, by splitting the Stoneblade decks, we would not have had a single deck based in white and blue represented in the chart, and the case of this archetype since MH2 is very interesting as you shall see later. Indeed, you might have noticed that none of the usual fair decks like White-blue Control or Black-Green/Jund Midrange made it onto the chart. Other old linear decks such as Tron and Burn did not do any better. In the next chapters, we learn more about what happened to them.

Part II – From AFR to MID

Barely one month after Modern Horizons 2, Adventures in the Forgotten Realms joined the card pool. To be honest, that set did not have much of an impact. Only a few cards made it to decks with good enough results to be published. The most played card ended up entering Hammer Time, conflicting mostly with . But the one that had the highest impact on the metagame was , bringing back Mill into the metagame by tremendously improving its matchup against several decks in the format, especially Burn, which was extremely tough, and Hammer, the most represented deck in the results.


ingenious smith tasha's hideous laughter

also made the cut in a few specific deck lists, mostly Urza ones, completely blanked by in practice, whereas many people assumed the opposite during the spoiler season. Still, those decks were not played enough to make it onto the graphs. joined a few Yawgmoth lists, whereas brought the Storm archetype back from the dead with a completely new build, even though it didn't make it a major player. It did have a few results in Challenges and Preliminaries though. Last, most animating lands from the set such as have been adopted here and there.

The Post-AFR Modern Metagame

If we take a larger picture of the metagame for the two months between Adventures in the Forgotten Realms and Midnight Hunt, we get the following:


Proportion of archetypes, out of 7067 matches, between AFR and MID (threshold for Other: 142 matches)
Proportion of archetypes, out of 7067 matches, between AFR and MID (threshold for Other: 142 matches)

If you read the first part of this article and my previous ones, you should be familiar with most archetypes by now. Note how Amulet Titan, Izzet Prowess, Rakdos Midrange, Asmo Urza, Yawgmoth, Stoneblade, and Humans faded. Instead, a few decks rose to greater prominence.

Burn

Good old Burn has an interesting matchup against pretty much all of the best decks of that format, for instance with against or for the cascade spells and evokes … After MH2, it also got the opportunity to run and in the sideboard. We could also see versions trying and/or .


Boros Burn by frakom, 3rd place at Modern Challenge on September 5
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1
  • 3
  • 3
  • 3

Deck guide: Should you need a guide for Burn, you can read Frakom's (on Patreon)—the player behind the result above (and many more with Burn).

Elementals

Not as old as Burn, Elementals got a complete facelift with MH2, as all the evoke cards are of course Elementals. Combined with and/or , you can get some absurd value just by evoking your cards instead of hardcasting them. can be pitched to any of the ones you play, in addition to providing an easy way to get five mana out of a fetch land to hardcast your other Elementals.

To make sure you do not lose to blue decks, you can run the full set of and . Additional spot removal like or helps against aggro decks. Otherwise, can provide a flexible toolbox. Hey, even is a playable card if you want to grind. Of course, given the type of your creatures, you also get to play as a companion.


Elementals by derk714, 1st place at Modern Showcase Challenge
Main DeckSideboard
  • 1
  • 4
  • 3
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  •  
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2

Deck guide: Kanister provides quality insight about the deck in this article.

Jund Saga

Jund Saga is the latest final evolution of the Super Saiyan Jund Midrange. looping provides a value that is hard to match, and you can also play , , and . Basically, if you do not see any Rakdos Midrange in the picture anymore, it is because splashing for Wrenn is too strong. (#playthegoodcards)


Jund Saga by Bullwinkkle6705, 1st at Modern Challenge on August 22
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1

Deck guide: Is your Jund soul still burning strong? Bullwinkle, the winner of that event, shared his insight on Twitter.

Creativity

Do your remember the deck from the end of my last article? The shell saw wild changes in the meantime. There's as the removal of choice, sometimes , but also a new enabler with a defensive option: . Perfect to chump Ragavan, while also providing either a creature or an artifact to sacrifice … or even both for X=2 on Creativity. was another choice to get some acceleration and/or a body to sacrifice, but it was not adopted by most lists.

is the tech you get when you X=2 for either Velomachus or in order to protect them from for instance. And out of the sideboard is great tech against big mana or control, especially when you get to cast Creativity into several of them at once. Also note that in the graph, Creativity with Emrakul and Creativity with Lorehold and multiple turns have been split, Turns ending up not appearing, so the overall percentage for Creativity could be higher.


Four-Color Creativity by calmdownbronco, 2nd at Modern Challenge on August 1
Main DeckSideboard
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 1
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2

Deck guide: Do you want to learn more about the Velomachus version? MrRaeb wrote a few words on the topic. For the Emrakul version, I would suggest a video by Zan Syed, SCG player of the year.

Green Tron

How about Green Tron? Well, even though it reappeared, we cannot say it really got much love in MH2. Rather the opposite. At least there was . Still, against a pile of midrange decks, you might as well try to Tron them out.


Green Tron by Yumas2, 2nd at Modern Challenge on August 2
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  •  
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  •  
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1

Grixis Monkey

Onto another new deck: Grixis Monkey. A control deck mostly developed by TSPJendrek, it harnesses the power of the / duo supported by all forms of interaction. It cuts to get access to , and with the addition of black it receives additional removal as well as discard spells.


Grixis Monkey by TSPJendrek, 4th at Modern Super Qualifier on July 26
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 3
  • 3
  • 3
  • 3
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1

Deck guide: If you want to learn from this great builder and player, you can have a look at his guide on Patreon.

Jeskai Control

In the meantime, white-blue players dropped , and turned back to their control roots. Hence the appearance of Jeskai Control. Many versions saw play, and the next part has another major update in store for us.


Jeskai Control by bobthedog (Gabriel Nassif), 1st at Modern Challenge on July 19
Main DeckSideboard
  • 1
  • 1
  • 3
  •  
  • 1
  • 3
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 3
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2

Note that this list is recognized to be quite untuned by the designer himself, who created it on stream to attack the specific meta he was expecting. And indeed, it worked pretty well.

Mill

Last, as mentioned earlier, Mill got a great upgrade in . But it also received from MH2, yet another mill spell that does not target the player. You might guess it, resolving on or casting against Hammer Time is a good way to win matches in Modern. Be wary of the waiting for you in the corner though …


White-Blue Mill by Wisnia, 1st at Modern Challenge on September 12
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 3
  • 5
  • 3
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4

Have you noticed that the list above is white-blue, instead of the usual blue-black? While the latter combination remained more popular, this variant is the one that had the best score. If you want to learn about it from its creator, he wrote a piece about it on Patreon.

Comparing the Two Months of the AFR Metagame

However, tallying up the metagame over those two months doesn't show the whole picture. In fact, the meta changed widely from one month to the other. Here is a table comparing the two.


Presence of archetypes, based on number of matches, between MH2 and AFR, month by month
Presence of archetypes, based on number of matches, between MH2 and AFR, month by month

As you can see, about half of the archetypes over 2% of presence changed from one month to the other. Decks that did not appear on the overall pie chart for the full two months are:

  • Jund and Rakdos Midrange
  • Taking Turns, which is the alternative build of Creativity mentioned earlier
  • Yawgmoth, which hit a slump during the first post-AFR month
  • Azorius Control, which is covered in more depth later

Also note that Azorius Control and Jund Saga were not represented at all during the first month and climbed the ranks on the second. Maybe a graph to showcase this in the next part would be useful?

Part III – MID Going Forward

So far we have covered three months and two sets of changes in Modern. Time to take on the last month and tackle the final set. First, let us see which cards from Midnight Hunt saw play in competitive lists. In main decks, the most represented is , which was adopted by most Azorius Control players. also entered various shells, such as Blue Moon and Izzet Murktide, as well as Reanimator, especially combined with .

Reanimator

Wait, Reanimator? In Modern? Yes, with and as enablers and as a target, all from MH2, the archetype was quietly developed again after its death due to the ban. Not really one of the most popular decks in the format, but this article would not be complete without mentioning it due to the hype surrounding it.


Reanimator by barczek, 7th at Modern Challenge on October 3
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

Phoenix

To be fair, another deck harnessing the power of and picked up in popularity too, even if just a little. It's the fan-favorite Phoenix! It even runs , which already reignited the hype with AFR. However, after the first results on the release weekend, the deck disappeared again …


Jeskai Phoenix by AspiringSpike, 6th at Modern Challenge on September 19
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 3
  • 3
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 3

Azorius Control

Now, how about the MID cards that entered some sideboards? Yes, they exist as well! Two of them see the most play at the moment. On the one hand, sits in multiple Yawgmoth sideboard, even in some main decks. On the other hand, the most used one is , the heir of . If you already knew about Reinforcements, then you might guess where Revelry sees play: Jeskai Control and Azorius Control.

Alright, alright, we mentioned the deck enough, finally, it is time for Azorius Control!


Azorius Control by Nammersquats, 1st at Modern Premier on October 16
Main DeckSideboard
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 3

There is a lot to unpack here. The most important change is the inclusion of . With that, you cannot run or (now ) anymore. Thankfully, MH2 brought to deal with small creatures and for the bigger ones, all this as early as turn one. Note that with , your Ending can even exile permanents with mana value up to 3. Some players even run another Triome or shock land for that reason.

Your planeswalkers can also help deal with most permanents temporarily, can steal one-drops, and clears any creature that might still be there. The uncounterable clause can be particularly impactful against out of Footfalls or from Izzet Murktide. Speaking of which, the deck itself gained too. After that, it also acquired , although not all the lists run it. Last, MID provided to replace and added as an upgrade to . The first lists developed after MH2 by Guillaume Wafo-Tapa used to run the latter, redefining the structure of the current Azorius Control after a period when the deck seemed to be irrelevant.


memory deluge chalice of the void

Why would you run ? If you play it on zero, you can stop all the cascade spells (just like does) or multiple enablers from Hammer Time. On one counter, you stop all the powerful one-drops from MH2, discard spells, removal, cantrips … which cripples decks like Hammer Time, Izzet Murktide, or Green Tron. Second, as mentioned earlier, you now have better spot removal that plays well with Chalice. You also lose some cantrips, but it is not extremely severe. As a consequence, you have to give up on , but at least offers both a body and a cantrip, if not card selection.

also works as a cantrip if needed and is particularly essential at the moment to deal with (completely destroying it since it remains a Saga, as mentioned earlier in the article) as well as the occasional or . This way you get to cut all the in order to better support and . Note that Wafo-Tapa rather likes to store most of his copies in the sideboard now, because many matchups where they are weaker are trending, such as the mirror or Elementals. Last, speaking of the sideboard, you even get to play a companion, ! Indeed, the only actual creature you run is , which happens to be an Elemental.

Deck guide: Would you like to learn more about the deck? Team TaC's Patreon might have something for you then.

The Post-MID Modern Metagame

And with that, we finally should know all the decks we need to be aware of to take a look at the post-MID Modern metagame.


Proportion of archetypes, out of 3216 matches, from MID to October 18 (threshold for Other: 65 matches)
Proportion of archetypes, out of 3216 matches, from MID to October 18 (threshold for Other: 65 matches)

Hammer Time remains on top. Meanwhile, the older archetypes that are Burn and Azorius climbed all the way up to the second and third position, continuing the ascension that they already started in the middle of the AFR metagame. On the other hand, Jund Saga is relatively stable again compared to the previous month's sharp rise. It is also interesting to note that the "Other (each <2%)" portion keeps shrinking. Is this a sign of the metagame getting solved? Are people tired of brewing after months of changes? Are the MH2 cards really stronger than what the rest of the format can offer?

We might need to wait another month to see if this trend continues. What is certain is that at least some people are still brewing, while some other decks try to abuse the weak spots of this creature-focused metagame.

Four-Color Yorion

Oh, wait, did you notice it? There is still one deck on this pie chart that we did not talk about yet!


WURG Blink by stainerson, 3rd at Modern Premier on October 18
Main DeckSideboard
  • 1
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 3
  • 4
  • 1

Let me introduce the ultimate grinding machine (for now—another might be on the way with cascade spells …). It's a nightmare fusion between Elementals and Four-Color Control that came out this month. Some versions even add to loop with and . Are there fair decks you plan to grind out in your next tournament? You know what to do … provided that you have the budget for it.

Presence Evolution Since MH2

Below you find a summary of the changes in our data set, starting with MH2, for what are now the most represented decks in the format that will make it to our final tier list (outside of WURG Blink that just appeared in tournaments). The results are divided into four periods of about one month each, mainly based on the releases of each set:

  • MH2: from June 3 to July 6
  • AFR 1: from July 7 to August 11
  • AFR 2: from August 12 to September 16
  • MID: from September 17 to October 18

The data is cut into two charts, in order to make it easier to read. In the first chart, you see decks that have mostly been one the rise since MID. The second shows archetypes that mostly stagnated or regressed after MID.


Proportion of rising archetypes, based on number of matches, from MH2 to October 18 (in percent)
Proportion of rising archetypes, based on number of matches (in percent)
Proportion of stagnating archetypes, based on number of matches, from MH2 to October 18 (in percent)
Proportion of stagnating archetypes, based on number of matches (in percent)

Post-MID Modern Win Rates

Now that we are aware of the presence of the most played decks, let us start working on our usual tier list. To do so, we need, as usual, the win rates.


Win rates and confidence intervals in percent, based on number of matches, from MID to October 18
Win rates and confidence intervals in percent, based on number of matches, from MID to October 18

Win Rate Evolution Since MH2

If you are curious about the way the win rate of those decks evolved over time, just like their presence did, you should find the following graphs relevant. Again, the data is split in four periods, same as above, and I also tried to put together archetypes with similar win rate behaviors in order to make it easier to read. First, we got the archetypes whose win rate mostly increased over time, especially after the release of MID. Next are the archetypes whose win rate mostly decreased over the past months. Last are the archetypes whose win rate decreased more or less significantly after MID but were rising or stable before it.


Win rates of rising archetypes (in percent)
Win rates of rising archetypes (in percent)

Win rates of falling archetypes (in percent)
Win rates of falling archetypes (in percent)

Win rates of stable or varying archetypes (in percent)
Win rates of stable or varying archetypes (in percent)

The way of splitting the archetypes may be debatable, but the main goal was to get graphs with fewer archetypes to make them easier to read anyway. We can mostly gather that, since MID, most of the top-tier decks saw their win rate decreasing. Among them, Azorius Control and Jund Saga only faced a small loss, which is to be expected after their fast ascension to the top of the format while people started adapting to them. Similarly, Hammer Time and Amulet's win rate barely drop in that period, but it is more of a stabilization after weeks of decrease since MH2.

On the other hand, Elementals' win rate has mostly been increasing since MH2, only dropping severely once in the second half of the AFR meta. But the dramatic increase after MID more than made up for it, going even over its previous high. Mill has also been ascending quietly since MH2, not accounting for the drop after the release of AFR, which we can easily explain with the very small presence of Mill at the time, leading to a more volatile win rate. Last among those improving decks, Burn, now the second most represented deck in the results, has simply been improving both in terms of win rate and presence since MH2. People seemed to have stopped respecting it until MID, while the Burn lists themselves were tuned to fight the new threats in the metagame.

I also find the case of Living End quite interesting, as both its presence and win rate remained relatively stable since MH2. I must say that I am not sure of the way to interpret this. Here is my funny theory: The deck is secretly overpowered and people try to get results with it, but not too many not to see it banned. The more reasonable theory would simply state that the deck is strong and tried to fight the hate, but people simply respected it more and more over time at the same time as it was trying to overcome the answers.

Displaying Win Rate and Presence Together

Now we can combine one factor with the other, as we did in the past. We get the following for the entirety of the archetypes:


Win rate by presence for all archetypes from MID to October 18 (circle diameters based on players)
Win rate by presence for all archetypes from MID to October 18 (circle diameters based on players)

What are the decks with a particularly high win rate you notice here? We already introduced Reanimator earlier, which is one of the closest decks to join the tier list by breaking above the average presence. Aside from that, there's …

Glimpse Combo

Glimpse Combo is another cascade deck based on the recent , which was lucky enough to hit a 4-0 in a Preliminary once. You cascade into this suspend spell, preferably after putting a lot of permanents into play using cards like , , and . Afterward, you either hope to end on an unbeatable board, or spin the wheel again thanks to recasting Glimpse, or that might give you enough mana and cards to cascade again.


Glimpse Combo by Talisker, 4-0 at Modern Preliminary on October 1
Main DeckSideboard
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 3
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4

Jeskai Midrange

The other deck with a high win rate in this table is automatically labeled as a Jeskai Midrange deck, but you could call it a Jeskai Stoneblade deck if you wish. Though, to be fair, it is more of a red-white deck that splashes blue for , some sideboard material, and a bigger . It may also catch your eye that it is again the same player as with Glimpse Combo, Talisker, who is responsible for the first and best finish of the deck.


Jeskai Midrange by Talisker, 1st at Modern Challenge on October 17
Main DeckSideboard
  • 3
  • 4
  • 4
  • 4
  •  
  • 4
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 3
  •  
  • 4
  • 3
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 1

From Data to Tier List

The tier list is close! Now, let us display only the deck with a presence over the average presence (which happens to be around 2%, so we see the same archetypes as the ones depicted in the pie chart).


Win rate by presence for the most represented archetypes, based on number of matches, from MID to October 18
Win rate by presence for the most represented archetypes, based on number of matches, from MID to October 18

Next, with the formula presented in a previous article, we normalize and sum the metrics that are the presence and the win rate, and we set the limit for tier 1.5 as the average of the results of this aggregation. For the other tiers, we determine them by adding or removing standard deviations on that value.


Sum of the normalized metrics for the most represented archetypes, based on number of matches, from MID to October 18
Sum of the normalized metrics for the most represented archetypes, based on number of matches, from MID to October 18

And … Yes, we made it, here is the tier list for the first month of the Modern MID metagame! (Insert Final Fantasy victory theme song.)


tier list

Closing the Game Article

There was a lot to cover since MH2, as the format radically evolved, even though a few of the historical archetypes of the format are still here and even doing really well. While the impact of the next sets, AFR and MID, was relatively minor, the metagame still underwent multiple changes over the last four months as people are still trying to figure out the entirety of the possibilities MH2 offers. At least we now have a relatively clear picture of what is going on, and the metagame is becoming more focused, as we can see with the "Other" category dwindling over time. This reinforces control decks now that they know what to target and by doing so allows them to cover a large portion of the format.

I hoped you enjoyed the article in spite of its length, maybe simply checking the titles and the pictures. Thankfully, even if you did just that, you should have found it helpful to understand how the metagame evolved and where it is standing at the moment.

Feel free to ask in the comments or on Twitter for additional information if needed, such as more details on the application mentioned early in the article, how I collected the guides for each deck (or others), or data about other decks. (Who knows, maybe you are interested in Affinity with and eventually , or new decks based on , or the data of each card—win rate, presence, by set …)

I'd also be glad to hear your opinion on the structure of the article and the graphics. See you back for the next metagame update!


Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily Cardmarket.